A mere two months prior that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
